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The Empire Strikes Back - NOT a good day to lock, wait till next week watch for Tuesday
Mortgage Bonds are down this morning pressured by a better than expected Empire State Manufacturing index. It is a very volatile number, so we can expect big swings. The index came in at 10.4, which was the best number we have seen since July. However, last month was the worst number in three years. So, while bonds are pressured, it is worse than expected because of the light trading, most traders are off till Tuesday morning. Offsetting some of the Empire State’s effects was a weaker than expected Industrial Production number. Overall, Bonds are lower and Stocks are flat.
The market is closed Monday and we will be back in the saddle watching rates on Tuesday, but remember Wednesday we will get the Fed minutes, which hasn’t been very kind to the mortgage markets in the past. Tuesday will be a decision day so pay attention - on Tuesday.
The Stock market S & P did not close below 1515 yesterday, so we did not see a Bearish Evening Star pattern develop from a technical trading perspective. So for now, Stocks are still trending higher, which is a negative for Bonds. We can begin the day floating UNTIL we're NOT.
Special credit to Jaques Poujade for the info-